Predictions

We think Starship Flight 15 catches its booster but not its ship, and that Tesla's first Cybercabs for customers slip past the end of 2026. Vi.ki's own predictions on Elon Musk's open announcements, each with a date to check it by.

36:56 In 2017 Musk put the first cargo ships to Mars in 2022, as he says in this clip; no ship has gone yet (Starship and Mars). We think the same gap between promise and calendar will hold for most of what he has announced since Oct 2026, and that most of it will still arrive in some form.

These are Vi.ki's own predictions and opinions, not reported facts. Each one says what we base it on and when it can be checked. We will mark each one right or wrong when it resolves. The predictions on each announcement's own page are about that announcement alone; the ones here cover what has no page yet or spans several.

Will Starship Flight 15 catch both stages?

We think Flight 15 catches its Super Heavy booster at the tower but not its ship, and that the first ship caught by the tower flies in 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Feb 2027.

Why we think so: SpaceX plans Flight 15 as its first attempt to catch both the booster and the ship (SpaceX). Boosters have been caught before, but Flight 14, the first to reach orbit, ended early after engines shut down early on both stages (SpaceX), and a ship coming back from orbit meets far more heat than a booster.

What would prove us wrong: a ship held by the tower's arms on Flight 15.

Will Cybercabs reach customers by the end of 2026?

We think no Cybercab is delivered to a customer outside Tesla's own Robotaxi fleet before Jan 1, 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Feb 2027.

Why we think so: Tesla's Lars Moravy said on Oct 21, 2026 that Cybercabs would reach customers "by the end of this year" (transcript), but Tesla has published no consumer price or order page, and NHTSA's audit of how Tesla certified the car is still open (Robotaxi and Cybercab).

What would prove us wrong: Tesla's Q4 2026 update reporting Cybercab deliveries to buyers.

Will SpaceX and Tesla merge?

We think SpaceX and Tesla announce no merger agreement before Jul 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Jul 2027.

Why we think so: Musk said on Oct 20, 2026 that the companies' special committees "have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction" (transcript); a deal would need a Tesla shareholder vote (NBC News), and Tesla's Dec 3, 2026 meeting has no such proposal (SEC). Committees of two public companies this size usually take many months.

What would prove us wrong: a signed agreement announced by either company before Jul 1, 2027.

When will SpaceX show StarMind?

We think SpaceX shows a StarMind computer at an event or in a video in the first half of 2027, but launches none to orbit before Oct 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Oct 2027.

Why we think so: Musk posted on Nov 6, 2026 that the details would be unveiled "next year" (his post), and the launches were reported for Q3 2027 (Interesting Engineering); its first systems depend on hardware NVIDIA has not shipped in volume, and on Starship flying payloads often.

What would prove us wrong: a StarMind system in orbit by the end of Sep 2027.

Will Terafab make its first chip on time?

We think Terafab's first test chip is announced later than Jul 2027, the summer after the "around May or June" Musk gave.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Sep 2027.

Why we think so: Musk gave that window on Tesla's Oct 21, 2026 call, with volume production "around Q3 of 2028" (transcript), for a plant whose first phase was filed at $55 billion or more (CNBC). A new chip plant takes years to equip, and every manufacturing date on this viki's pages but the Cybercab's passed first.

What would prove us wrong: a working Terafab test chip shown before Aug 2027.

Will Starship fly every week in 2027?

We think Starship flies fewer than 10 times in the first half of 2027, not weekly.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Jul 2027.

Why we think so: Musk said on Oct 20, 2026 that Starship would fly "weekly at some point in the first half next year" (transcript); Flight 13 flew on Jul 24, 2026 and Flight 14 on Sep 28, about two months apart (SpaceX).

What would prove us wrong: ten or more Starship launches between Jan 1 and Jun 30, 2027.

Will Starbase Louisiana start construction in 2027?

We think construction of SpaceX's Louisiana spaceport starts in 2027, as SpaceX said, but its first Starship launch slips past 2029.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2029.

Why we think so: SpaceX put construction in 2027 and the first launch in 2029, while Louisiana's economic development office spoke of operations in 2030 (TechCrunch). The state's own date is already a year later than SpaceX's, and Starship's Mars and Moon dates have moved the same way (Starship and Mars).

What would prove us wrong: a Starship launch from Louisiana in 2029.

Will Grok 4.8 come before Grok 5?

We think the next frontier Grok model released is Grok 4.8, before the end of Mar 2027, and that Grok 5 follows later in 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Mar 2027.

Why we think so: Musk's own Sep 14, 2026 post puts Grok 4.8 and 4.9 ahead of Grok 5, with no date for any of them (his post); his "two weeks" for Grok 4.6 became 19 days and his "four weeks" for 4.7 became 59 (xAI and Grok).

What would prove us wrong: Grok 5 released before Grok 4.8.

Our take

We think the dates are the least reliable part of a Musk announcement and the products the most reliable: of the 12 announcements with a page here, none has been abandoned, while six are late on every date they were given (Announcements). We think a reader should treat his dates as the earliest possible, and the companies' filings as the place where a date becomes a plan.