Starship and Mars

Elon Musk unveiled his Mars rocket on Sep 27, 2016 and has since named 2022, 2024 and 2026 for the first Mars flights. As of Nov 9, 2026 no ship has gone to Mars, SpaceX lists Mars cargo from 2028, and Starship reached orbit for the first time on Sep 28, 2026.

55:51 As of Nov 9, 2026, no SpaceX ship has left for Mars, and SpaceX's own Mars page says Starship cargo flights to the Martian surface "start no earlier than 2028", at $100 million per metric ton. The rocket itself is further along than ever: Starship reached orbit for the first time on Sep 28, 2026, and Flight 15 is set for as soon as Nov 13, 2026, pending regulatory approval, with the first attempt to catch both stages at the tower. Musk first showed the Mars system, then called the Interplanetary Transport System, at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara on Sep 27, 2016. In the clip from SpaceX's video of the talk, he says that "if things go super well" Mars might come "in the ten-year time frame", and adds at once that there is a "good chance we don't succeed".

Status: Late. Last checked: Nov 9, 2026.

Quick facts

Maker	SpaceX
Announced	Sep 27, 2016, International Astronautical Congress (SpaceX)
First Starship flight	Apr 20, 2023, suborbital (SpaceX)
First orbit	Flight 14, Sep 28, 2026 (SpaceX)
Next flight	Flight 15, first try to catch both stages (SpaceX)
Mars cargo	"No earlier than 2028", $100 million per metric ton (SpaceX)

What he announced

The 2016 talk, "Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species", laid out a fully reusable booster and spaceship, refilled with propellant in Earth orbit, carrying about 100 people per trip. Musk said the architecture allowed "a cost per ticket of less than $200,000", perhaps $100,000 over time, and promised an uncrewed Dragon to Mars "in a couple years", then another in 2020.

36:56 A year later, on Sep 29, 2017 in Adelaide, he shrank the design into the BFR and gave it a calendar. In SpaceX's video of that talk he says the first two cargo ships should fly in 2022 ("that's not a typo, although it is aspirational"), and that in 2024 SpaceX wanted to "fly four ships, two of which would be crewed". The BFR became Starship, the name it flies under today.

Every promised Mars date, and what happened

Promised	When he said it	What happened
Uncrewed Red Dragon to Mars in 2018, another in 2020	Sep 27, 2016, IAC talk	The launch slipped to 2020, and in Aug 2017 NASA officials said SpaceX had put Red Dragon on the back burner (Spaceflight Now). It never flew.
A Mars ticket under $200,000	Sep 27, 2016	No crewed price exists. SpaceX quotes Mars cargo at $100 million per metric ton (read Nov 9, 2026).
Two cargo ships to Mars in 2022	Sep 29, 2017, IAC talk	Starship first flew, suborbitally, on Apr 20, 2023.
Four ships, two crewed, in 2024	Sep 29, 2017	No Starship had reached orbit by the end of 2024.
First uncrewed Starships to Mars in the 2026 window; crews four years later	Sep 7, 2024, post on X	On Feb 8, 2026 he said SpaceX had shifted focus to the Moon. No Mars launch is planned for the window now open.
A "50-50 chance" of making the end of 2026	May 29, 2025, SpaceX video	Missed, as above.
First flight without humans in "~3.5 years", humans in "~5.5 years"	Aug 6, 2025, post on X	Points to about early 2029 and early 2031. Not yet due.
Begin a Mars city "in about 5 to 7 years"	Feb 8, 2026, post on X	Not yet due.

What happened since

Starship flies, 2023 to 2025. The first integrated flight on Apr 20, 2023 climbed to about 39 km before it was lost. Over the next flights SpaceX caught Super Heavy boosters in the launch tower's arms: its Flight 15 page counts three earlier-generation boosters caught, two of them flown again. Every flight before Flight 14 was suborbital.

The bigger V3 Starship, 2026. The first V3 flight, Flight 12 on May 22, 2026 from the new Pad 2, put the ship down softly in the Indian Ocean, but the booster could not relight enough engines for its boostback burn and crashed in the Gulf, an event the FAA said fell inside the cleared hazard area (SpaceQ). On Jul 24, 2026, Flight 13 deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital path and its ship came to rest intact in the Indian Ocean for the first time.

Orbit, Sep 28, 2026. On Flight 14, one vacuum engine shut down early on the way up, the remaining five burned longer, and the ship relit a sea-level Raptor to enter orbit, deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and made its first deorbit burn. Out of caution after the engine loss, SpaceX cut the flight short and splashed down in the North Pacific after 3 hours, 8 minutes, instead of the planned six orbits. That was 14 integrated flights in all.

The Moon first, Feb 2026. NBC News reported on Feb 9, 2026 that The Wall Street Journal had said SpaceX told investors it would target March 2027 for an uncrewed lunar landing and attempt Mars later. Musk wrote the day before that a Moon city could take "less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years", because ships can leave for the Moon every 10 days but for Mars only every 26 months (X). The Mars transfer window that opens in late 2026 is the one he had named in 2024, and SpaceX's own page now points to 2028.

Starship as NASA's Moon lander

NASA picked Starship on Apr 16, 2021 to land the first Artemis astronauts, a $2.89 billion fixed-price contract. The plan has since been rebuilt. In its Nov 4, 2026 update, NASA describes Artemis III, in 2027, as a 14-day crewed flight in Earth orbit that docks Orion with test versions of both landers, SpaceX's and Blue Origin's, and Artemis IV, in 2028, as the planned landing. For Artemis IV, Starship would refuel in Earth orbit, meet Orion there and carry it toward the Moon, and NASA says both companies are "targeting to be able to support a crewed lunar landing in 2028". Refueling one Starship from another in orbit, which the lunar plan and every Mars plan need, has not been demonstrated as of Nov 9, 2026; SpacePolicyOnline notes SpaceX still has to build the depot and show cryogenic transfer in space (Sep 28, 2026).

Why "late": Musk's dates for Mars ships (2022, 2024, 2026) have all passed without a launch, while SpaceX still says Mars is the goal and gives 2028 as the earliest cargo date. The Moon lander, the other job Starship has been sold for, is on NASA's schedule for 2027 and 2028, so that part has not yet missed a date under the current plan.

We think

We think no Starship will launch toward Mars in the late 2028 window either. As of Nov 9, 2026 Starship has made one orbital flight, propellant transfer between ships is still undemonstrated, and SpaceX's own priority, by Musk's Feb 8, 2026 post, is the Moon, where NASA's crewed landing target is also 2028. Two first-of-a-kind campaigns needing dozens of refueling flights in the same year look unlikely.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Jan 2029.

We expect SpaceX to demonstrate ship-to-ship propellant transfer in orbit before the Artemis III docking test flies, since its Artemis IV plan depends on a refueled Starship and NASA has framed the 2027 flight as the trial for which lander goes first.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.